China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, saw a 2% decline in its crude oil imports in 2024, averaging 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d), down from 11.3 million b/d in 2023, according to EIA.
This drop is linked to slower refinery activity and shifting fuel consumption trends. China’s refineries processed 14.2 million b/d in 2024, a decrease from 14.8 million b/d the previous year.
Why Did China's Crude Imports Fall?
The decline in transportation fuel demand—particularly diesel—led to lower refinery runs. While gasoline and jet fuel consumption grew, the drop in diesel use offset these gains. Meanwhile, China increased its imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), naphtha, and other refined products that are directly used in petrochemical manufacturing, reducing the need for crude oil processing.
Key Suppliers: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia
China imports crude oil from multiple countries, with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Malaysia as the largest suppliers.
Russia remained China’s top supplier, with imports rising 1% to 2.2 million b/d in 2024. This increase followed Western sanctions that limited Russia’s oil sales to other markets, allowing China to secure crude at discounted prices.
Saudi Arabia was the second-largest supplier, but shipments fell 9% to 1.6 million b/d, marking a three-year decline.
Malaysia saw a significant rise in exports to China, reaching 1.4 million b/d, much higher than Malaysia’s actual oil production. This increase is likely due to rebranded Iranian crude avoiding sanctions.
Iraq’s exports to China increased, while shipments from the UAE and Kuwait declined.
Canada’s exports rose, particularly in the second half of the year, following the launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which increased crude export capacity to Asia.
Outlook for 2025: Uncertainty and Policy Shifts
China’s oil demand is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2025 and 2026, but imports may still increase as domestic crude production remains limited.
However, a new tax policy implemented in December 2024 has introduced uncertainty.
The reduction of a value-added tax rebate on petroleum product exports may impact China’s refining operations and competitiveness in global markets. If refiners scale back production due to lower profit margins, both refinery runs and crude oil imports could decline further in 2025.
China’s role in global oil demand remains significant, but evolving energy policies, trade shifts, and geopolitical factors will continue to shape its crude oil imports in the coming years.