In the next two years, the growth of petroleum liquids supply will be led by non-OPEC+ countries, particularly in the Americas.
According to forecasts by EIA, global oil production will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026, with the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil driving this expansion.
In contrast, OPEC+ production will grow at a slower pace, adding only 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026, due to ongoing production limits.
United States: the top producer
The United States remains the world's largest oil producer, with crude oil production reaching 13.2 million b/d in 2024.
The increase is mainly due to greater efficiency with fewer drilling rigs.
By 2026, production is expected to reach 13.7 million b/d, with the Permian Basin responsible for nearly half of this total.
Growth in this region is balancing declines in other areas.
Canada: expansion with new pipelines
Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, will increase production from 6.0 million b/d in 2024 to 6.5 million b/d in 2026.
A key factor is the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which allows crude oil to be exported from Alberta to international markets.
Brazil: new offshore production units
Brazil’s growth is driven by the deployment of Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units in the Santos Basin.
In 2025 and 2026, three new FPSOs in the Búzios and Mero fields will boost production by 0.3 million b/d.
Guyana: rapid growth from offshore projects
Guyana is emerging as a major oil producer, with production rising by 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and 0.1 million b/d in 2026.
The Stabroek block projects—Yellowtail, Uaru, and Whiptail—are expected to reach 1.3 million b/d by 2027.
OPEC+ Production: slow recovery
OPEC+ produced 35.7 million b/d in 2024, representing 47% of global crude oil supply.
Its share is expected to drop to 46% in 2025 and 2026, compared to 53% in 2016.
Saudi Arabia remains the top OPEC producer, but its output has declined due to extended voluntary production cuts.
Russia follows as OPEC+’s largest crude oil producer, averaging 9.2 million b/d in 2024.
While OPEC+ production remains significant, non-OPEC+ countries are driving future oil supply growth.
Increased efficiency in U.S. drilling, new pipelines in Canada, offshore expansions in Brazil, and rapid development in Guyana are shaping the global oil market in the coming years.
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