Kazakhstan has become the center of attention in the global oil market, leading a sharp increase in OPEC+ crude output during February.
According to the latest OPEC report, the alliance, which includes OPEC, Russia, and other key oil producers, saw a production increase of 363,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing total OPEC+ output to 41.01 million bpd.
What makes this surge significant is that Kazakhstan alone accounted for more than half of the increase, producing 1.767 million bpd in February, well above its OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million bpd, according to Reuters.
This overproduction has raised questions about OPEC+’s ability to enforce agreed output limits, especially as other members like the UAE, Nigeria, and Gabon have also exceeded their quotas, though by smaller margins.
Why is Kazakhstan producing so much?
The Tengiz oil field, operated by Chevron, is the driving force behind Kazakhstan’s record output.
As one of the country’s largest and most advanced oil fields, its production levels have consistently exceeded OPEC+ limits.
Despite Kazakhstan’s pledge to reduce output in March, April, and May, the ongoing overproduction poses a challenge for OPEC+ as it tries to stabilize oil prices and manage global supply.
Impact on oil prices & OPEC’s strategy
The production surge comes at a time when OPEC+ is preparing to ease some of its recent output cuts, with a planned increase of 138,000 bpd starting in April.
Kazakhstan’s overproduction played a key role in OPEC+’s decision to move forward with the April hike, despite concerns that higher output and trade policy shifts could add downward pressure on oil prices.
After the OPEC report, Brent crude remained stable above $70 per barrel, indicating that while the market is watching production trends closely, demand remains strong for now.
Oil demand outlook: stability amid uncertainty
OPEC also maintained its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting an increase of 1.45 million bpd in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026.
Unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicts lower demand growth, OPEC remains optimistic that oil demand will not peak soon, despite ongoing energy transitions.
With global trade policies shifting, including new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, OPEC expects some volatility in the market, but believes the global economy will adapt.
What’s next for OPEC+?
The focus now shifts to whether Kazakhstan will follow through on its promise to cut production and how the broader OPEC+ strategy unfolds in April.
If overproduction continues, it could lead to internal tensions within OPEC+ and put further pressure on oil prices.
For now, the industry watches closely to see if market stability holds or if unexpected shifts force new adjustments.
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