The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) is now available online. This edition explores global oil market stability and growth trends towards the end of 2023. Despite a decline in Mexico's production, an increase is expected from other oil-producing countries.
The analysis includes US economic growth, the IMF's projection for China, potential risks, oil demand, refining margins, US supply, OPEC production, inventories, market volatility, and OPEC cooperation. Here are 10 key takeaways, presented by the staff at American Mud Pumps.
1. Global Oil Market Stability
Despite negative sentiments, recent data indicates robust global growth trends and healthy oil market fundamentals.
2.Economic Growth Projections
Strong growth in the US economy in 3Q23.
IMF upgraded China's economic growth projection for 2023 to 5.4%.
3.Potential Risks
Minor risks to global economic growth forecasts include restrictive monetary policies and geopolitical developments.
4.Oil Demand and Imports
Chinese crude imports increased to 11.4 mb/d in October, potentially setting a new annual record.
India’s crude imports are expected to reach a record high in 4Q23.
Global oil demand shows resilience, with a forecasted growth of 2.5 mb/d for 2023.
5.Refining Margins and Travel Activity
Asian refining margins remain strong.
Jet/kerosene and gasoil crack spreads in Singapore are robust, supporting markets towards year-end.
6.US Liquid Supply Growth
The supply picture also remains strong with non-OPEC supply revised up slightly to reach 1.8 mb/d for 2023, the US being the main growth contributor.
7.Crude Market and OPEC Production
Strong crude differentials observed in almost all regions.
OPEC-11 crude production in October remained below the agreed level under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).
8.Seasonal Trends and Global Inventories
OPEC shipments and Saudi crude exports align with seasonal trends.
Global crude stocks declined in 3Q23, reflecting high global crude runs and voluntary adjustments by DoC countries.
9.Market Volatility and Price Trends
Financial market speculators have reduced net long positions, leading to increased market volatility and price declines.
10.OPEC and Non-OPEC Cooperation
OPEC and non-OPEC countries' proactive approach under the DoC has contributed to market stability.
Commitment to the DoC agreement extended until the end of 2024 to sustain market stability.
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