The recent opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline has raised questions about its impact on Canadian crude supplies to U.S. refineries. Despite this new outlet for oil sands producers, Canadian crude flows to the mid-continent and Gulf Coast have remained steady, with record volumes in some regions.
1. Record flow of canadian crude to the mid-continent
In July, Canadian crude flow to the mid-continent reached 2.9 million barrels per day (b/d), the highest rate since 1993. This increase, up 140,000 b/d from the previous five-year average, highlights the steady supply to U.S. refineries even after the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX), according to Argus.
2. Impact of the TMX pipeline
The TMX pipeline, with a capacity of 890,000 b/d, became operational on May 1, opening a new route for Canadian oil sands producers to reach Pacific markets. Even though volumes were being diverted westward, mid-continent refineries still received ample crude.
3. Steady supply despite TMX opening
Despite concerns that the new pipeline might reduce supply to the mid-continent and Gulf Coast refineries, the extended delays in TMX construction allowed upstream production to grow, maintaining a healthy flow to U.S. markets.
4. Enbridge’s role in canadian crude supply
Enbridge’s Mainline system, with a capacity of 3.1 million b/d, remains the largest provider to the mid-continent and continues to be oversubscribed. There are even plans for another expansion, potentially by 2026, to meet rising demand.
5. Shift in U.S. Gulf coast crude imports
Flows to the U.S. Gulf Coast in July fell slightly to 512,000 b/d, down by 66,000 b/d compared to the previous five-year average. However, the drop in supply has had minimal impact on the region, with flows remaining largely unchanged since TMX came online.
6. Increased exports via Westridge marine terminal
In June, Trans Mountain moved 704,000 b/d, with over half being shipped through the Westridge Marine Terminal for export. This new Pacific access has reshaped Canadian crude export strategies.
7. Canadian crude displacing other foreign supplies
The U.S. West Coast saw a record 498,000 b/d of Canadian crude in July, double the usual volume. This increase has displaced other foreign crudes and disrupted trade flows, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
These points summarize the impact of the TMX pipeline and Canadian crude flows, providing valuable insights for industry professionals.
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